Feasibility and Risk Assessment Consultant – (MENA) Consultancy

Request for Proposal (RFP)

Solicitation Number: CSLT SAHA**‐**FY25‐01

CONSULTANCY OPPORTUNITIES (MENA)

Issued on: July 28, 2025

Deadline: August 15, 2025

Executive Summary

This document presents the Terms of Reference for a series of consultancy positions supporting the development of Pathfinder International’s Funding Proposal to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) for the SAHA Programme. These consultancies will provide expertise across critical thematic areas – ranging from environmental and social safeguards to financial structuring – to ensure the programme is technically robust, gender-responsive, and implementation-ready. The SAHA programme aims to enhance the climate resilience of healthcare systems across Oman, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq by addressing climate-health risks, strengthening institutional capacity, and promoting inclusive, sustainable approaches.

Position Title:

Feasibility and Risk Assessment Consultant

Level of Effort (days):

Deliverable-Based

Period of Performance:

6 Months

Country(s) of Performance:

Multiple Countries in the MENA

Supervisor:

Pathfinder Project Lead

Activity:

Sustainable Adaptation for Healthcare Advancement in the MENA Region (SAHA)

Background

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is one of the most climate-vulnerable areas globally. The region has experienced a warming trend of 1-2°C in the last century and is projected to witness more frequent and severe extreme weather events as a result of anticipated shifts in the region’s climatic patterns. The health burden of climate change is significantly understudied across the MENA region. However, changing temperature and precipitation patterns related to climate change have broad effects on these countries, threatening agriculture, food and water security, and overall human health and well-being.

To answer these challenges, Pathfinder is working with a range of stakeholders to develop a comprehensive programme aimed at reducing the impact of climate change on the health sector in five target countries: Oman, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq.

The Sustainable Adaptation for Healthcare Advancement in the MENA Region (SAHA) programme will address the root causes and barriers that contribute to and exacerbate climate and health challenges in the region, including 1) insufficient information on climate change’s impact on disease burden and health, 2) strained administrative capacity, 3) limited capacity of healthcare workers, 4) limited private sector investment and financial resources, 5) barriers to healthcare access, and 6) gender inequity. The programme proposal will be submitted to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) under the Project Specific Assessment Approach (PSAA) mechanism.

The overarching aim of the SAHA programme is to enhance the climate resilience of healthcare systems and health-related community practices in 200 health facilities and their catchment areas across 14 districts/regions in the target countries.

The SAHA programme will use a gender-responsive, community-based approach to integrate cross-sectoral issues that contribute to adverse climate-health outcomes, including climate-health information and warnings, agriculture, food and water security, and energy access. By doing so, SAHA increases the potential for substantial and sustained climate change mitigation and adaptation action in the health sector.

The programme goal has four outcomes:

1. Climate-Informed Health Early Warning Systems are widely available and used to monitor and address the health impacts of climate hazards locally and regionally.
2. Health facility staff are able to anticipate and respond to climate risks to healthand have increased adaptive capacity to maintain climate-resilient health facilities.
3. Health facilities and infrastructure are more resilient, sustainable, and prepared for climate risks.
4. Multisectoral community initiatives improve climate-sensitive health outcomes and inspire agents of change.

Primary Objectives of the Consultancy

Pathfinder is seeking the services of qualified and experienced consultants to:

• co-lead inception phase activities together with Pathfinder: finalizing the program scope, objectives, theory of change (ToC), governance, development roles & responsibilities, range of interventions and target areas, high-level sites selection criteria, and development strategies.
• conduct a Feasibility Study to inform the design of the full SAHA programme Funding Proposal to be submitted to the Green Climate Fund (GCF).
• conduct a Risk Assessment to identify potential policy, financial, technical, and institutional risks that may affect programme implementation.

The feasibility study will provide an evidence-based analysis of the programme’s soundness, and will assess its feasibility in terms of alignment with GCF-2 Investment Framework. In parallel, the risk assessment will identify vulnerabilities and recommend mitigation strategies to reduce the likelihood and severity of these risks.

Findings from the above-mentioned components will directly contribute to the preparation of the GCF Funding Proposal and associated annexes.

Scope of Work

The selected consultant(s) will conduct a comprehensive Feasibility Study and Risk Assessment to support the SAHA programme’s Funding Proposal package for submission to the Green Climate Fund (GCF). The study shall be fully aligned with the GCF’s six investment criteria (Impact Potential, Paradigm Shift Potential, Sustainable Development Potential, Needs of the Recipient, Country Ownership, and Efficiency and Effectiveness) and reflect the principles and technical requirements set forth in:

• Guidance for establishing the mitigation impact potential of GCF funded activities in support of Decision B.33/12, (Link) and
• Guidance for establishing the adaptation impact potential of GCF funded activities in support of Decision B.33/12 (Link).

The study will contribute to demonstrating the programme’s climate rationale, country ownership, and transformational potential, and will provide methodological and quantitative justification for both mitigation and adaptation impacts.

In accordance with the Mitigation Principles of Decision B.33/12 the consultant will:

• Co-lead inception activities to finalize the programme’s theory of change, intervention logic, and climate impact pathways for mitigation.
• Assess mitigation potential in accordance with GCF guidance and clearly structure the analysis around the five mitigation principles:

1. Country Alignment

• Demonstrate alignment of mitigation interventions with national climate targets (e.g. NDCs, LT-LEDS, energy transition strategies).
• Document engagement with NDAs and competent national authorities.

2. Methodological Approach

• Identify and justify the use of internationally recognized mitigation methodologies (e.g., CDM, Verra, Gold Standard, FAO EX-ACT).
• Conduct common practice analysis (CPA) to evaluate the additionality of proposed activities where applicable.

3. Boundaries, Baseline and Additionality

• Define GHG boundaries and determine emission sources/sinks considered in impact calculations.
• Establish credible baseline scenarios for each mitigation activity.
• Justify additionality and calculate the mitigation lifetime of all interventions.

4. Assumptions

• Apply consistent, transparent, and country-aligned emission factors and assumptions.
• Justify and document all assumptions and input values in emissions estimates.

5. Measurement, Reporting and Verification(MRV)

• Propose an MRV system for each mitigation activity, aligned with national MRV systems and the GCF IRMF.
• Define annual and cumulative mitigation impacts in tCO₂eq over the project lifetime.

In accordance with the Adaptation Principles of Decision B.33/12 the consultant will:

• Assess the adaptation impact potential of the programme following the four adaptation principles in the GCF adaptation guidance:
• Principle 1: Identification – Climate Hazards, Vulnerabilities and Systems at Risk

Step 1 – Climate Hazard Characterization: Identify and characterize climate hazards relevant to health systems (e.g., heatwaves, floods, droughts).

• Analyze historical trends and future projections using sources such as IPCC, CHIRPS, NAPs, and national climate services.
• Distinguish anthropogenic climate trends from natural climate variability (e.g., ENSO).

Step 2 – Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

• Analyze exposure and vulnerability of systems and populations (especially gender, marginalized groups, rural populations).
• Identify systems at risk (e.g., primary healthcare, WASH, energy for service continuity).
• Develop vulnerability hotspot maps and overlays.
• Synthesize findings from national climate risk assessments, WHO/UNDRR profiles, and other scientific/technical reports.

Principle 2: Response – Adaptation Actions and Justification

• Establish a clear causal link between each proposed intervention and the reduction in exposure and/or vulnerability.
• Identify barriers (e.g., institutional, technical, financial) to adaptation and how the programme addresses them.
• Justify selection of adaptation measures based on comparative analysis of alternatives.
• Quantify adaptation beneficiaries using a sound and transparent methodology.
• Conduct maladaptation screening and demonstrate how the design avoids negative spillovers

Principle 3: Country Alignment

• Assess consistency of proposed activities with national adaptation strategies (e.g., NAPs, NDCs, adaptation communications, health sector strategies).
• Reference alignment with national planning documents and sectoral priorities.
• Document coordination with NDAs and line ministries in the formulation of the adaptation rationale.

Principle 4: Monitoring and Evaluation

• Design a monitoring and evaluation system to assess adaptation outcomes, aligned with GCF’s IRMF and country systems, considering appropriate metrics, indicators, baselines, targets, and disaggregation for tracking adaptation results.
• Specify methods for quantifying and reporting adaptation beneficiaries.
• Integrate the MEL system into the programme’s feedback and learning framework.
• Develop a summary table, consistent with the format included in the GCF guidance (see “Table for the demonstration of the baseline and additionality” in “Guidance for establishing the adaptation impact potential of GCF funded activities”), for each country or subregion covered by the programme.

Additional Feasibility Tasks:

• Finalize a shortlist of target areas and interventions based on climate impact potential, viability, and selection criteria established during the inception phase.
• Conduct a techno-economic assessment of proposed interventions to demonstrate cost-effectiveness and viability.
• Identify and evaluate co-benefits (social, environmental, economic) of the programme.
• Assess scalability, replicability, and contribution to a low-emission, climate-resilient paradigm shift.
• Assess institutional readiness and implementation capacity of executing entities and delivery partners.

The scope of work for the Risk Assessment is:

• To identify and assess potential policy, financial, technical, and institutional risks that may affect programme implementation and to produce a Risk Mitigation Framework as a result of it
• To identify key risks and vulnerabilities and outline the specific measures the AE will implement to prevent, manage and address these risks and vulnerabilities.
• To identify – among others – strategic, institutional, procurement, technical, operational, macroeconomic, legal and compliance-related risks, as well as project-specific financial risks and propose mitigation strategies to inform robust implementation arrangements. Legal risks will include risks related to sanctions (particularly in Lebanon and Iraq).

Risk assessment will also incude Prohibited Practices risk assessment and counterparty due diligence in connection with Prohibited The selected consultant will work closely with Pathfinder’s project team and relevant stakeholders. The consultant will be required to coordinate and interface closely with other consultants, such as those leading the other specialistic studies and/or drafting the Financing Proposal (FP), to provide inputs from its deliverables and to ensure coherence of approach, alignment, and avoidance of duplication across activities. The consultant will also be required to interface with external stakeholders as required by the client.

Deliverables & Outputs

• High-level workplan – outlining conclusions from inception phase
• Feasibility Study – final structure and content to be validated by the Client.
• Mitigation Impact Assessment (structured as per the five GCF principles)
• Adaptation Impact Assessment (structured as per the four GCF principles + summary table)
• Risk Assessment Report and Risk Mitigation Framework – detailing steps for risk identification, compliance review, and mitigation planning.

Required Skills, Qualifications & Experience

• Minimum 10 years of experience conducting feasibility studies and/or assessing the technical, financial and operational readiness of projects/programme proposals for international development, climate mitigation and/or adaptation, health, or sustainable infrastructure programmes.
• Strong understanding of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly in the health sector and/or essential public services such as energy, WASH and health infrastructure.
• Experience developing and/or assessing risk mitigation frameworks.
• Technical expertise in one of the following: low-emission technologies, WASH systems, GHG accounting, clean energy, climate-resilient infrastructure, or public health systems. Technical expertise in more than one ambit will be a distinct advantage.
• Experience conducting and/or assessing feasibility studies and/or risk assessments in the MENA region, with an understanding of regional legal, institutional, and cultural contexts. Experience in the region is a distinct advantage.
• Demonstrated ability to produce high-quality, well-structured technical reports that meet international and donor standards.
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills in English; proficiency in Arabic is highly desirable.
• Prior experience supporting and/or assessing GCF proposals, including feasibility studies and financial/operational risk assessments
• Ability to run cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses will be a distinct advantage
• Experience with developing and/or assessing climate scenario modelling, emissions reduction planning, and the integration of co-benefits into programme design.

Tagged as: Egypt, Pathfinder International