Consultancy: Endline Study for the PROSPECTS’ Phase 1 in Kenya Consultancy NEW

Project Title: PROSPECTS (Improving prospects for forcibly displaced persons and host communities)

Assignment location: Kenya: Garissa and Turkana Counties

Assignment duration: 45 days: October 2024 – January 2025

Project background

The forced displacement crisis has increased in scale and complexity in recent years. According to UNHCR there were about 117.3 million forcibly displaced persons (FDP) at the end of 2023 with about 44.5 million refugees and asylum-seekers. Overall men and women were almost equally represented in the population of concern. Forced displacement is increasingly protracted and disproportionally affects children: 50% of refugees worldwide are children. The overwhelming majority (76%) of refugees are hosted in developing countries with limited resources and capacities to respond to the situations – with substantive socioeconomic impacts on both FDPs and host communities (HC).

The partnership for improving prospects for forcibly displaced persons and host communities (PROSPECTS) is a unique eight-year partnership (2019–2027, Phase 1 ending in Dec. 2024), spearheaded by the Government of the Netherlands, that brings together the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the International Labour Organization (ILO), the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the World Bank (WB). Together, these partner organisations are developing a joint and fully integrated approach to respond to the forced displacement situation in the Middle East, North Africa and in the Greater Horn of Africa.

PROSPECTS aims to facilitate transitioning from humanitarian to development-centred assistance, by addressing long-term challenges and needs of FDPs and HCs and accelerating sustainable solutions to build a more inclusive, cohesive and productive society. This is to be done by aligning and leveraging partners’ experience and expertise to develop a new paradigm in responding to forced displacement crises. Through their involvement, development actors can help transform the way governments and other stakeholders, including the private sector, respond to forced displacement crises for both FDPs and HCs through joint and concerted action in three thematic focus areas, referred to as pillars:

1. Education and Learning: Increased Access of FDPs and HCs to Quality Education, Skills and Learning Opportunities
2. Economic Inclusion: Improved livelihoods and expanded economic opportunities for FDPs and HCs, through access to entrepreneurship and employment with dignity.
3. Protection, Social Protection and Inclusion: Increased Government Protection for FDPs and HCs & Increased Inclusion of FDPs and HCs In Community-based, Local and/or National Social Protection Systems
4. Critical Infrastructure: Improved Services, Facilities and Information Systems Essential to FDPs and HCs

The work to achieve results under the four pillars is delivered by country teams in eight target countries namely Egypt, Ethiopia, Iraq, Jordan, Kenya, Lebanon, Sudan, and Uganda.

Within PROSPECTS, the ILO plays a key role in the promotion of decent work and focuses on strengthening local economic development and improving employability by equipping refugees and host communities with relevant skills to enter local labour markets and access enterprise development opportunities. The ILO brings significant expertise and experience in supporting enabling environments to underpin inclusive socio-economic growth and decent work, strengthen labour markets and promote access to improved working conditions and fundamental rights at work, including through the involvement of its tripartite national constituents.

In Kenya, PROSPECTS is implemented in Garissa and Turkana Counties (dominant refugee host counties) and works closely with the respective county governments. At the national level, PROSPECTS works with line government departments and agencies and the private sector. According to the data from UNHCR, by end of August 2024, Kenya was hosting 782,468[1] refugees and asylum seekers with 385,328 (49.3%) living in Dadaab (Garissa County) and 288,206 (37.3%) living in Kakuma refugee camp and the Kalobeyei settlement (Turkana County). The rest of the refugees and asylum seekers (13.4.5%) were living in various urban centres (mainly Nairobi). The two refugee host counties are largely arid and the inhabitants, the majority of whom are pastoralists, are regularly affected by recurrent droughts. PROSPECTS in Kenya seeks to build resilience through protection, learning and earning initiatives anchored on sustainable socio-economic transformation and transition to jobs. To date, the project has directly reached over 10,000 refugees and host community members through various interventions.

Objectives and Scope of the Endline Study

PROSPECTS in Kenya is designing an endline study to assess the impacts the program has had on its project participants during the first phase (2019 – 2024). The endline study will focus on project participants who have benefited from any of the project interventions since its inception in Kenya. The consultant will work closely with the program team to design a detailed assessment of the outcome-level indicators that can be assessed using this approach.

Specifically, the endline study will include an endline survey to capture changes under the following outcomes:

• Outcome 1: Increased number of forcibly displaced persons (refugees) and host community members with quality education
• Outcome 2: Increased number of forcibly displaced and host community members with enhanced livelihoods and/or employment in safe/decent work.
• Outcome 3: Increased government protection, social protection, and inclusion for forcibly displaced and host communities

The endline survey will be accompanied by Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with PROSPECTS project participants, based on purposive sampling for the different categories (e.g., type of intervention received, gender, host community versus FDPs, etc.). The consultant is expected to propose the appropriate number of FGDs relevant for this assignment as per the description in the ToR. The categories to be used may include:

• TVET / Recognition of Prior Learning (RPL) / Work Based Learning
• Employment services
• Employment-Intensive Investment Programme (EIIP)
• Entrepreneurship
• Financial education and access to financial services
• Value chain development (fodder, bee keeping, camel milk, poultry)
• Rights at Work and Social Protection
• Digitalization work (digital skills & RPL, digital job intermediation, digital Job search clubs, Digitalization of public employment services and digitalization of TVET)

FGDs should be organised around gender and national status (refugees/host communities).

A third tool will be the use of an institutional online survey among the national partners to understand the extent of integration of ILO’s tools and approaches regarding specific development sectors. The list of national partners will be made available by the ILO PROSPECTS Kenya team, but will revolve around 20 partners, who are all expected to complete the survey.

The last data collection tool is a key informant interview guide with selected national partners or other key stakeholders to understand the achievements of PROSPECTS at a national level and better understand the progress and gaps to be filled for sustained results.

These lines of inquiry shall provide valuable information about the changes to those that have been exposed to the project interventions. Specific objectives of the study include:

1. Explore what changes have occurred in the lives of the project participants.
2. Assess how the intervention contributed to the reported changes.
3. Assess the sustainability likelihood of PROSPECTS interventions.
4. Identify factors contributing to or hindering the realization of anticipated outcomes.
5. Provide insights into which type of interventions or approaches may have had more impact.
6. Identify the extent to which each targeted group by PROSPECTS have benefitted from the interventions.
7. Identify what seems to work better and in what circumstances.
8. Provide recommendations on what corrective measures should be incorporated in the remaining period of the programme and subsequently for Phase 2.

Overall, the consultant will be responsible for designing the tools in close collaboration with the ILO team, recruiting the research team, collecting the data in the field and subsequently analysing the data and writing the study report.

Methodology

The endline study will adopt a mixed methods approach of quantitative (endline survey and institutional online survey) and qualitative data collection (FGDs and KIIs). The consultant shall conduct a targeted desk review of relevant project-related documentation to understand the project design, reported achievements and challenges.

The consultant will then develop an inception report, including, but not limited to, the sample informed by the project participants in each pillar, the draft data collection tools, the enumerator/facilitator training plan, and the field work plan.

Estimated sample sizes:

The consultant shall work closely with the ILO in developing sampling techniques for the project participants to be included in the endline survey. The ILO has estimated the following samples but the final sample sizes for the study shall be agreed upon during the inception phase.

• Endline survey: 400 respondents (if any of the selected project participants are not available, they will need to be replaced)
• Institutional online survey: 20 expected to complete the survey online
• FGDs: 12 to 15 discussions, with 8 to 10 individuals each.
• KIIs: 15-20 individuals from different groups of implementers and key stakeholders.

The consultant will also be required to digitize the endline survey tool for electronic data collection. The consultant shall use appropriate mobile data collection applications to design and conduct phone interviews with the selected project participants. The consultant will be required to put in place data quality measures to ensure the completeness, accuracy, and reliability of the data collected. The survey instrument shall be tested (piloted) before the actual data collection to identify any ambiguities and ensure the flow and skip patterns are working well. Various quality control measures should also be put into place for the collection of qualitative data. The qualitative data is expected to be collected in-person, although some KIIs may also be done virtually (over the phone or agreed online meeting platforms).

Main deliverables

The consultant shall submit the following key deliverables as per the timelines to be agreed upon at the inception phase:

1. Inception report: The inception report will detail the study methodology, sampling strategy, matrix detailing the data to be collected and corresponding quantitative and qualitative data collection tools, enumerator and facilitator recruitment and training plan, data quality management processes (for both quantitative and qualitative), study timeline and fieldwork plan. The consultant will submit the inception report to ILO PROSPECTS for review and approval before commencing the fieldwork activities.
2. Electronic survey tools: Once the tools for the survey with project participants and the institutional survey with national partners have been approved, the consultant will be expected to digitize the tools using an appropriate mobile data collection platform for electronic data collection. Tools must be piloted, and corresponding adjustments made before the actual data collection.
3. Field work report giving a summary of the data collection process, challenges and how they were addressed.
4. Draft endline study report – Submitted after the initial analysis of collected data for review by the project team.
5. Present findings at the stakeholders’ validation forum – The consultant shall prepare a PowerPoint presentation summarizing the findings of the endline survey and present to a stakeholder’s forum that shall be organized by the ILO. The PPT shall also be submitted to the ILO for subsequent disseminations.
6. Final endline study report – submitted after incorporating the inputs from PROSPECTS staff and stakeholders.
7. Study datasets: The raw and cleaned quantitative and qualitative data collected during the study and used to prepare the final report. Quantitative to be shared in MS Excel – all narrative should be in English, including the responses to open questions in the survey tools. Qualitative transcripts should be shared in MS Word and in English.

Management arrangements

The consultant will execute the assignment under the overall supervision of the PROSPECTS Chief Technical Advisor in Kenya. He/she will work directly with the PROSPECTS National M&E officer and with the overall technical guidance of the ILO PROSPECTS Global M&E Officer. The assignment will also be executed in close collaboration with PROSPECTS implementing partners in target areas.

Tentative work plan and timeframe

The consultancy is planned to take a maximum of 45 working days between October 2024 and January 2025. The specific deliverables and timeframes are outlined in the table below:

Phase | Deliverable(s) | Key activities | Estimated # of days

1.Inception | Inception report[2]

• Inception meeting
• Sharing of relevant documents by ILO
• Document desk review
• Development of data collection quantitative surveys and qualitative guides (KIIs and FGDs).
• Sampling of project participants
• Developing the inception report including tools, sampling methodology, quality control measures, data collection plan, etc.
• Digitizing the approved survey tools into the agreed mobile data collection platform (preferably Kobo Toolbox)
• Hiring of enumerators / facilitators
• Sharing the list of sampled project participants and communicating to implementing partners (ongoing process)

12 days

2. Data collection | Fieldwork report

• Research team training and pretesting of tools
• Actual data collection in target locations (phone interviews for quantitative + in-person for qualitative)
• Prepare a field work report summarizing the approach to data collection, the preparatory work completed ahead of fieldwork (including enumerator training and piloting), details about the fieldwork completed including the sample achieved, the quality assurance processes used to assess fieldwork results, and an overview of the key challenges faced (and mitigation efforts) during the fieldwork process.
• Transcription of qualitative interviews
• Submission of raw datasets

16 days

3. Data Analysis and Reporting | Draft report, PPT with key findings, Validation workshop

• Cleaning and analysis of collected data
• A draft report detailing the findings of the endline study
• Summary findings in a PPT format
• Present in a stakeholders’ validation workshop

14 days

4. Finalization | Final report, Cleaned datasets, Refined PPT

• Incorporate stakeholders’ feedback, finalization, review, and approval of the final endline Study report.
• Refine the PPT to be used for other dissemination activities.
• Refine and submit cleaned datasets (quantitative) and transcripts from qualitative data collection.

3 days

TOTAL: 45 days

Payment arrangements

The following are the proposed terms of payment, but the final terms shall be negotiated at the contracting stage.

• 30% of the contract sum after the submission and approval of the inception report.
• 40% after the submission and approval of the draft report.
• 30% after the submission and approval of the final report and associated deliverables.

Required Competencies and Experience

• The lead consultant should possess a university degree in a relevant academic background e.g., Social Studies, Demography and Population Studies, Development Studies, International Relations, Statistics, Monitoring and Evaluation, etc.
• The lead consultant should have a minimum of 8 years’ experience in field research with an in-depth understanding of how to design and implement mixed methods endline studies.
• The lead consultant must have previous experience in a similar assignment within the refugee context either in Kenya or any other region.
• Proven track record in conducting research or evaluations for similar programmes.
• Proven capacity to adjust to unforeseen circumstances and be solution-driven
• Significant experience in the use of participatory techniques in research, especially on how to engage with vulnerable groups.
• Proven track record in working with mobile data collection approaches.
• Proven ability to contract, train, and manage experienced enumerators and facilitators.
• Experience in designing and implementing evaluations or research activities remotely.
• A good understanding of the project’s geographical region, community cultures and norms.
• Ability to collaborate with project partners when needed/requested.

Legal and ethical matters

• The consulting firm is required to sign and abide to the Code of Conduct together with the contract document.
• All data and information received from the ILO or other stakeholders for the purposes of this assignment shall be treated as confidential and shall be used only for the purpose of executing this mandate. All intellectual property rights arising from the execution of this mandate are attributed to the ILO. The contents of the written documents obtained and used in connection with this assignment may not be disclosed to third parties without the prior written consent of the ILO or the relevant stakeholders.
• All communication to other relevant stakeholders should be coordinated with the ILO.
• Any modifications to the agreed timelines or tasks, should be in concurrence with the ILO and obtain prior written approval.
• The Consultant is required to fully comply with the advisories/guidelines issued by the government, the UN and ILO regarding travel to the refugee camps.

Submission of proposals

Qualified consulting firms are encouraged to submit a technical and financial proposal detailing the following:

Technical proposal:

1. A short outline of the approach, research design and methodology for the endline study
2. A proposed process and timeline for the study setting out the steps, the number of consultants/enumerators/facilitators and the number of days.
3. The anticipated challenges and dependencies likely to affect the implementation of the study and how these should be addressed.
4. A description of how to ensure data quality throughout the endline study process.
5. A summary of the most relevant skills and experience of the lead consultant together with the CV showing relevant previous assignments and clients. (Attach CV separately).

Financial proposal:

A detailed budget with a breakdown of the consultants’ professional fees (for one or more consultants) and for reimbursable expenses which include the costs of hiring enumerators, cost of consultants’ travel to the field and daily subsistence during training of enumerators and fieldwork. The consultants will only be expected to travel to the field for the FGDs and KIIs, but the enumerators will conduct the interviews with project participants on phone.

Note: All costs related to the assignment should be outlined in the financial proposal. The ILO will only cater for the venue and conference costs during the enumerator training. The consultant should provide a detailed breakdown of all other costs related to execution of the assignment.

Selection Criteria

The recruiting team will evaluate the proposals and award the assignment based on technical responsiveness and the principle of value for money ensuring transparency, impartiality, and neutrality.

[1] https://www.unhcr.org/ke/what-we-do/reports-and-publications/kenya-operation-statistics

[2] Refer to the ILO checklist on writing inception reports: https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/wcmsp5/groups/public/@ed_mas/@eval/documents/publication/wcms_746817.pdf

Tagged as: International Labour Organization, Kenya